On Tuesday, President Donald Trump published a social media post indicating that a "Deal is Imminent" and that talks with Iran about denuclearization had started...again.
Allow me to lay out a quick timeline of what has happened over the last few days regarding Iran.
- Friday, Trump said he is considering serious new attacks/war crimes against Iran.
- Saturday, Trump said that he was canceling a massive planned attack on Iran because Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had requested him “to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
- Monday, CNN reported that Iran denied it was negotiating with the US.
- Monday, Trump threw a hissy fit on social media about Iran being "unbelievably duplicitous!" and claiming that Iran did indeed ask for negotiations.
- Tuesday, Trump did not deliver on his earlier threats and claimed, yet again, that a deal was coming.
In nearly each statement, Trump blustered about the US's military power and superior leverage in the conflict.
Iran is currently in talks with Oman to establish a safe, “temporary” route for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday.
“The effort is to determine, at the earliest opportunity and in consultation with Oman, a route that is naturally temporary and based on which the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be ensured,” the Iranian official said.
Iran continues to ignore Trump's threats and assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. I have written at length about the war and the US's inability to open the Strait and lack of leverage to resolve the conflict on favorable terms. I will spare you more of the same, and simply remark on how embarrassing and detrimental to the nation Trump's conduct is.
Trump has shown that he is unwilling or unable to escalate the war meaningfully in order to bring it to a favorable end. That is understandable. I suspect there is little appetite among the American public for sending in the troops necessary to secure a favorable outcome. Similarly, there is likely little appetite for committing possible war crimes against the Iranian people.
Trump has blustered and saber-rattled like this many times. Each time he does not follow through, he looks weaker, more desperate, and stupid. America's credibility suffers.
It reminds me of a scene from Game of Thrones in which foolish and short-sighted soldiers continually threaten to execute a captured lord if his uncle and subjects do not surrender their castle. They never follow through, and the threats become meaningless. Another character does a wonderful job of explaining the problem to the soldiers.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/zi32sU4Kvtw?si=nSDwGFJsLPxjOaM-&start=19
So why does Trump continue to do this? Surely he cannot be as stupid as the soldiers from Game of Thrones. I suspect it is a combination of things: desperation arising from his miscalculation in beginning the war (and his inability to end it in a manner that does not involve embarrassing capitulation to Iran) and his pathological need to sound and act "tough" and "strong."
Perhaps Trump's most loyal supporters believe his threats convey toughness and strength, but Iran and the rest of the world do not. Americans who are not under his spell, along with the rest of the world, see a weak man in a weak position. They see someone who made a grave miscalculation with no real backup plan. They see a jackass braying impotently to try to look strong at the expense of his nation. They see that America is not as strong or effective as they thought.
While the war has cost lives and money, it's biggest cost has been American prestige and credibility, and it will be a long time before we can recover.