On Wednesday, the US government finally released the 14-point memorandum of understanding that purports to end the war with Iran, which US officials had been talking about for days. The US and Iran have both signed the MOU.
I have written at length about the aimless disaster that is the Iran War. The rationale for the war was unclear. Our goals for the war were unclear. What we wanted in order to end the war, particularly once it became clear the Iranian ruling regime would not simply fold, was unclear.
It quickly became evident that President Donald Trump and his advisors dramatically miscalculated and/or misunderstood the situation prior to the war. It also became obvious to nearly everyone, including the Iranians, that Trump was so desperate to end the war that Iran effectively had all of the leverage in how it would end.
This led to the conclusion that, unless something changed in Iran to shift leverage back to the US, the US would either need to continue to wage war or come to an agreement that greatly favored Iran. And, because America's war-making capability was greatly reduced and the public greatly opposed escalating the war, it seemed that a bad agreement was a fait accompli.
Yet, the agreement is somehow worse than I and many others feared it would be. Many of the leaked and rumored details about it turned out to be true, and, in some ways, the reality is even worse. It is bad enough that many Trump-supporting zombies cannot avoid acknowledging it. To paraphrase the man behind it, this MOU is the worst deal maybe ever signed, anywhere.
The MOU is only about 800 words, so I encourage you to read it for yourself.
Here is most of what the US is agreeing to:
- Ensure the "territorial integrity and sovereignty" of Lebanon, a nation currently being invaded and occupied by our ally Israel.
- Immediately remove its blockade of Iranian ports.
- Remove its forces from Iran's proximity.
- After 60 days, Iran and Oman get "to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz." In other words, after 60 days, Iran and Oman can decide whether ships have to pay to get through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Come up with a plan with "regional partners" to give Iran $300 billion "for the reconstruction and economic development."
- "Undertake[]" to remove all sanctions against Iran, including those from the UN.
- Immediately work to "issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc."
- Work to unfreeze all frozen Iranian money and assets.
Here is what Iran is essentially agreeing to do:
- "[C]ommit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days," although the parties can agree to extend this "deadline."
- Make "best efforts" to allow ships to move through the Strait of Hormuz at no charge...for 60 days.
- Not make or obtain nuclear weapons.
In sum, Iran will receive $300 billion from the US and/or US allies. It will also get access to billions, if not hundreds of billions, of frozen Iranian dollars and assets. It will get to decide, along with Oman, what to charge ships going through the Strait of Hormuz. It will get to freely sell its oil and integrate with the international economy in ways it really has not been able to do for decades. The US will leave it alone militarily and politically. The US will work to essentially protect Iran's terrorist proxies in Lebanon. This is quite a good deal for a country Trump repeatedly said was utterly defeated and its military destroyed.
In exchange, the US sort of gets back to the pre-war status quo. It gets the Strait of Hormuz open without any taxes (for 60 days). The US also receives a promise from Iran not to make or obtain nuclear weapons. This is, at best, what Iran had agreed to in a deal with Obama, which Trump had said was "the worst deal ever negotiated" and tore up during his first term. And last, Iran promises to continue negotiating about other issues like nuclear energy and uranium enrichment.
Iran is arguably better off than it was before the war. It gets left alone, tons of money, the ability to sell its oil and make lots of money, access to international banking and markets, and more control over the Strait. Meanwhile, at best, the Strait temporarily returns to the pre-war state, and Iran will essentially continue previous promises to avoid nuclear weapons. And it only cost the US tens of billions of dollars, lives, prestige, years' worth of weapons, and a higher cost of living.
Trump promised nothing less than "unconditional surrender" from Iran. Instead, it is the US that essentially surrendered and agreed to terms overwhelmingly favorable to Iran.
Donald Trump broke his promise about starting no new wars, particularly in the Middle East. He broke his promises about the outcome of the war in Iran. He spent huge amounts of taxpayer dollars to essentially strengthen, enrich, and legitimize a ruling regime he claimed was so evil and dangerous that it had to be eradicated. Yet, he lies right to our faces about the agreement and the state of our country.
Donald Trump betrayed his supporters and his country. He made it clear, even to his supporters, that he is not the master dealmaker that he claims to be. In a true the-emperor-has-no-clothes moment, even many of his slavish supporters must face the fact that this whole affair was one of the worst foreign policy missteps in national, if not world history, culminating in a truly embarrassing and pathetic agreement.