Over the last week or so, the US's embarrassing ceasefire agreement with Iran has fallen apart.
Iran resumed attacking commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, the US has been conducting attacks in Iran while Iran attacks US bases in the Middle East. President Donald Trump is saber-rattling once more, claiming the US will hit Iran "very hard" Monday night. Additionally, the US resumed its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
What went wrong? Well, if you believe the Wall Street Journal, it all came down to a disagreement between the US and Iran as to what paragraph 5 of the ceasefire MOU meant.
The root of the dispute is Paragraph 5, which says Iran will make arrangements to restore shipping through the strategic waterway and then work with Oman to determine how to administer it in the future. But it also includes an Iranian pledge to ensure safe passage and remove military obstacles such as mines.
Trump administration officials saw that clause as unlocking the strait, the main accomplishment of the president’s deal. Iranian hard-liners, however, have used it to push a maximalist interpretation that gives the Islamic Republic exclusive control over the waterway as a key source of leverage.
Further,
A U.S. official familiar with negotiations said Paragraph 5 has been problematic and that the U.S. and Iran are on “different planets” when it comes to interpreting the deal. Notably, the paragraph says nothing about the U.S. making arrangements for the safe passage of vessels, which Iran has seized on to attack ships that use a U.S.-coordinated route, the official said.
It sounds like Iran believed the US was conceding that Iran had full control over the Strait, including authority to collect a toll from passing ships. In my opinion, this is in line with the clear text of the MOU, but apparently the US disagreed and believed it could facilitate passage through the Strait without Iran's approval.
In sum, the asinine, illegal war is back on, and the agreement was a waste of time. Trump, of course, has found a way to potentially make things even worse.
It is not entirely clear what Trump means. Is the US going to offer to have its navy escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz for a 20% (of what exactly?) fee? Or is Trump suggesting that the US itself will administer the Strait and charge a 20% toll? Both seem problematic.
Either way, the US is essentially trying to shake down commercial traffic passing through the Strait to sidestep a problem the US itself created. Prior to launching the Iran War, commercial ships could freely move through the Strait, through which passes roughly a quarter of the world's oil. Since the war began, Iran has attacked commercial traffic in the Strait, essentially closing it.
Oil prices skyrocketed as a result and have remained elevated and volatile even during the ceasefire. Much of the world's oil reserves are becoming dangerously low. The restarting of hostilities is sure to make everything worse.
But fear not, here comes Trump to fix a problem he created by adding a 20% tax to oil and other cargo moving through the Strait. It is reminiscent of a mafia goon throwing a brick through the window of a local business and telling the owner he can protect him from the neighborhood hooligans...for a monthly tribute payment. It would be a shame what might happen to the owner and his store if he were not to pay the tribute.
Trump's scheme is embarrassing, unbecoming, impractical, possibly illegal, and short-sighted. From where does he get authority to do this? How would he require or persuade shipping companies to comply? Could the US even administer the Strait or escort all ships, particularly with a furious Iran desperate to maintain its own leverage? How will other nations and commercial shipping companies react to Trump essentially setting the world economy on fire and then trying to make them buy a questionable solution?
If it is even feasible to enact and collect such a fee, it is likely to put more stress on the world economy, earning resentment from most of the world. This scheme is just another example of Trump's ignorance and myopia concerning foreign policy. While the United States is full of his slavish supporters and pathetic sycophants, other nations have their own independent motivations and dynamics. Trump always seems to think he has the leverage to do whatever he wants, even when he simply does not, which is how the US got into this mess of a war to begin with.
As I have noted previously, the US simply does not have the leverage to end the war on favorable terms at the moment. Instead of figuring out how to bolster the nation's position and end the war, Trump has decided to further antagonize the rest of the world while showing just how little leverage he has to back up his tough wise-guy words.
As usual, things seem poised to get worse before they get better.