On Tuesday, the US House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Road to Housing Act by a vote of 358-32. The Senate passed it Monday. All it needs to become law and go into effect is the President's signature.
I was originally planning to write a short, positive post about the bill. It is generally receiving praise (although it may not change things immediately).
The bill would shorten the environmental review process to build new houses and would make it easier and cheaper to produce manufactured housing. The bill would prohibit large institutional investors from buying more than 350 homes. The bill would encourage local governments to alter land use and zoning policies to be more friendly to new housing development. The bill would create a pilot program to provide grants and forgivable loans to people to repair their homes. It would make it easier to convert old office buildings to apartments.
Of course, President Donald Trump has figured out a way to negatively affect things.
Trump had intended to sign the bill in a typical signing ceremony; however, two hours before the scheduled signing, he canceled it and notified the public via social media.
Trump is refusing to sign the housing bill into law until the election overhaul bill he supports is passed by Congress. The SAVE Act, according to NBC News, "would overhaul elections in all 50 states and add new proof of citizenship and voter ID requirements." The bill passed the House, but it has not passed the Senate due, at least in part, to Democratic opposition.
"Republican leadership insists they do not have the votes to pass it, given Democrats’ strong opposition and an unwillingness among Republicans to get rid of the legislative filibuster," according to NBC News.
In his social media post, Trump merely said he would not be signing the bill. He did not indicate that he would veto it. He did, however, berate Congress for focusing on a bill of such low importance.
It is certainly bold to claim that addressing the national housing problem in a variety of ways is of relatively low importance, particularly for a man who continues to post multiple times a day about the state of the National Mall Reflecting Pool (as well as about other embarrassing and pathetic things).
It is just another example of how Trump simply does not care about you and is betraying his core campaign promise to address the rising cost of living. Trump is denigrating Congress, and by extension, the American people, for working to address how expensive and limited housing is in much of the country instead of prioritizing whatever he currently thinks is most important.
On its face, his argument is asinine. Congress already did the work and passed the bill. By refusing to sign it, he is not freeing up Congress to work on other more "important" issues. Instead, he is throwing a tantrum and holding the housing bill hostage until Congress (i.e., Senate Republicans) gives him what he wants.
It is not unusual for politicians to trade their support for something their opponents want in return for their opponents' support of what they themselves want. This is usually done a bit earlier in the process, not when the bill has already been passed by overwhelming majorities in each house of Congress. Additionally, for obvious reasons, a politician usually does not do this to obstruct a bill that is in line with one of the main issues the politician campaigned on.
So what do Trump's actions mean for the bill? Probably nothing beyond a short delay. If he simply refuses to sign, under the US Constitution, the bill becomes law after ten days (not counting Sundays).
If Trump actually vetoes the bill, it goes back to Congress. If each house of Congress passes the bill by a 2/3 vote, it becomes law. As the bill passed both houses by overwhelming majorities already, it seems like Congress would be able to muster the votes to override a veto--unless Republicans cower and capitulate in a way that would be exceptionally pathetic, even for them.
I think what we have here is another example of Trump miscalculating his leverage and/or simply doing anything he can to try to exert pressure on Congress to pass legislation he wants, no matter how bad it makes him and his party look. My guess is Trump will just throw a loud and obnoxious tantrum to try to get Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster and pass the legislation he wants but not actually veto the housing bill. He will end up either signing it or letting it become law after ten days.
In light of the large Congressional majorities that voted for the bill, I doubt Trump will be willing to risk looking like a weak chump having Congress override his veto. Similarly, I do not think he has enough leverage to successfully pressure Senate Republicans to eliminate the filibuster to allow them to rubber stamp controversial legislation supported by the President right before an election that already looks like trouble for the Republican Party.
But who knows? Congressional Republicans seem to have an endless capacity to disappoint and show almost zero spine in resisting Trump.
The inescapable conclusion is that Trump is once again sidelining (or in this case, actively hindering) addressing the rising cost of living, which was likely the main reason he was elected, in favor of focusing on his own pet interests and priorities. Will his die-hard supporters care? Probably not. But will some people who voted for him because they thought he would lower prices see this as another reason to punish Republicans at the polls in November? We shall see!