On Wednesday night, an unusual Republican Convention began ahead of the midterm elections in November. Such conventions generally only occur before presidential elections every four years.
Ostensibly, this convention is to raise money for Republican candidates for Congressional and local offices and to motivate Republican voters to turn out to vote for these candidates in November. In many ways, however, it seems more about stroking the ego of the King of the Republican Party Donald Trump. This meant that the man himself would speak and dominate the night. Trump spoke for almost two hours, and to nobody's surprise, he spouted off something significant.
Trump says he will send $5,000 to every adult in America...if Americans vote for Republicans in large enough numbers in November to enable Republicans to retain majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. He also went on to say that the money would have to be spent in America.
Naturally, he had to glorify and focus on himself by calling it a "Trump dividend." He did not explain how these payments, which would like likely cost over a trillion dollars, would be paid for. He did not explain how he has authority to issue such a payment. He did not explain how he would make sure the money was spent in the US.
This left Vice President J.D. Vance with the unenviable task of explaining and spinning this "policy" promise.
“We’re taking in an extraordinary amount of revenue because the president of the United States is actually standing up to both foreign companies, but also foreign countries,” Vance said in an interview with Fox News. “What the president is just saying is … if you keep us in power and allow us to continue to do these things, then you’re going to share in some of the benefit of this incredible wealth that we are creating.”
What this all essentially amounts to is a bribe. Donald Trump is offering a bribe to American voters in exchange for their votes. In essence, if American adults vote in large enough numbers for Trump's political party, he will raid the US Treasury and hand us a bunch of money as a reward for keeping Democrats off of his back.
This is likely unlawful as authority to spend money resides with Congress under the Constitution, and the President lacks legal authority to unilaterally decide how money is spent. Additionally, as the New York Times notes, "Federal laws prohibit expenditures to influence voting, though Mr. Trump framed the payment as one that would be provided later, as an economic incentive."
Trump's promised bribe is also repugnant to our political system the very idea of responsible self-governance. It also runs counter to what the Republican Party has claimed to stand for (fiscal responsibility) and what it has accused the Democratic Party of (shelling out money we do not have).
The key idea underpinning our American system of government is that the people are responsible enough to govern themselves. They do not need a wise, benevolent monarch or group of people to assume control and make decisions for the people as if they were parents acting in the best interests of children.
Trump is laughing at this notion of responsible self-governance by the people. He has plainly assumed that there's no need to persuade people that his party is better-suited to running the government in the people's best interest. Instead, he can simply appeal to people's selfish greed and promise to line people's pockets with some hard cash. That is enough.
It should go without saying that this promise is dangerously fiscally irresponsible and would be incredibly detrimental to the country if Trump follows through. The US simply does not have the money for this, no matter how much money Trump claims the nation has netted from his tariffs. The United States' debt is over $40 trillion. This is more than double what it was ten years ago. Currently, the country is incurring at least $2 trillion in debt every year. To service that debt, the nation is paying more than $1.25 trillion every year. In other words, roughly 20% of the money the federal government spends is essentially going toward paying interest on its debt.
The US government collected about $4.5 trillion in revenue in the last fiscal year. The amount of money we spent on paying interest on debt is approaching half of that figure. And it appear to only be getting worse.
In other words, we do not have the money for this bribe. Instead, to pay it, the country would need to borrow enough money to instantly increase the national debt by at least 2.5%. Or, it would need to print a bunch more money, further devaluing our money and increasing the prices of goods and services.
This is all assuming Trump follows through. But why would we believe that a prolific con-artist will follow through? If we have the money to issue these "Trump dividends," why hasn't the federal government issued them already? From a fiscal perspective, why would we have to wait until after the election? Sure, it could be because it is a simple quid pro quo. He is holding the money hostage until he gets what he wants--extortion.
But, it could also be that he has no intention in following through. First, as far as I am aware, the president has no authority to simply pay out over a trillion dollars to Americans. It would take an act of Congress, and even though Congressional Republicans are generally spineless Trump toadies, it seems unlikely they would humor Trump by passing a bill to issue over a trillion dollars to Americans for any reason, let alone for voting for them.
Perhaps Trump would simply purport to issue the money himself, expecting a successful court challenge to deny him and provide a convenient scapegoat. "I would have followed through if it wasn't for that damn Supreme Court refusing to Make America Great Again!" And, if the courts do not stop him, then he gets his way and the bribe is issued, fiscal consequences be damned.
Second, Trump has a long history of not sticking to his word to pay people. There are even multiple instances of him promising money to Americans and simply not delivering, such as a dividend for "DOGE" savings and a "tariff refund." There is a good chance that this wild voter bribe is just another empty promise to the American people.
Both outcomes would be terrible, but I think this is a rare case in which a politician following through on his promise would be significantly worse than reneging on it.
Assuming Republicans held on to majorities in both houses of Congress (a huuuuuge assumption), if Trump failed to follow through, trust in politicians and government would likely sink lower while still eroding trust in the validity of our system of government. The idea that an election was potentially bought by one party would be a major blow to faith in our constitutional system and the idea of self-governance, but it would be made even worse by the idea that we suffered all of these consequences for a blatantly false promise. Perhaps though, it would have the silver-lining of souring more Americans on Trump and the Republican Party.
On the other hand, Trump following through on his promise would be a fiscal nightmare (in addition to many of the same negative consequences as him failing to follow through). As I explained above, the country simply does not have the money. Borrowing the money would significantly worsen an already big debt/interest problem. Printing the money would significantly worsen an already big inflation/affordability problem. It would also set a terrible precedent for blatantly bribing voters going forward.
As usual with many of Trump's schemes, it is a lose-lose situation for the American public. If Trump gets what he wants, America will surely suffer regardless of whether he follows through. The only solution to this dilemma is to make Trump and his party pay with an electoral beating in November. Do not give in to short-sighted greed and reward this civic and fiscal arsonist and his sycophantic party with your votes.
No matter what happens, we will at least get some slight satisfaction in watching Republicans officials and supporters who once claimed (and often still do) to be champions of fiscal responsibility spin and support this bribery scheme like their lives depend on it.